Thanks to the agreements provided for in the EU trade programme, between now and 2030, the agri-food exports of EU countries will increase significantly, and imports will grow to a smaller extent, creating overall a positive balance of trade. This is what emerges from a study carried out by the Commission’s Joint Research Centre and published in recent days. In particular, the analysis, which is an update of a similar work carried out in 2016, examines the cumulative effects that will have by 2030 the 12 trade agreements signed by the EU on the agri-food sector.
Using a theoretical modelling exercise, the study observes the commercial results for the agricultural sector as a whole and the sectoral effects on trade, producer prices and production volumes. The study assesses two scenarios, one prudent and one ambitious and shows a positive impact on the EU’s agri-food trade balance by 2030. The EU’s agri-food exports to the 12 partners of the agreements are expected to increase by 25% (prudent scenario) and 29% (ambitious scenario), while imports will increase by 10% (prudent scenario) and 13% (ambitious scenario) compared to the status quo. This corresponds to an increase in total EU agri-food exports of 4.7 billion euros (prudent scenario) and 5.5 billion euros (ambitious scenario); the overall growth of agri-food imports is estimated at 3.7 billion euros (prudent scenario) and 4,7 billion euros (ambitious scenario).